Anticipatory InterDiction In Narco-Trafficking Networks

After more than 40 years of U.S.-led counternarcotic efforts in the Western Hemisphere, movements of cocaine by narco-trafficking networks toward the U.S. continue to rise, including an unprecedented 2,976 metric tons in 2016. Cocaine- or ‘narco’-trafficking through the Central American corridor supplies over 80% of the cocaine consumed in North America. Despite numerous related national security concerns , efforts to stem the flow of cocaine  into the U.S. have clearly failed . In this project, we investigate spatial adaptive behaviors of narco-trafficking networks in response to various counterdrug interdiction strategies within the cocaine transit zone of Central America and associated maritime areas. Through a collaboration among geography, operations engineering, and criminology researchers, we implement a potentially transformative coupled agent-based and interdiction optimization modeling approach to compellingly demonstrate: (a) how current efforts to disrupt narco-trafficking networks are in fact making them more widespread, resilient, and economically powerful; (b) the potential for alternative interdiction approaches to weaken and contain traffickers.
Research Team
Senior Personnel: Nicholas R. Magliocca (PI, UA), Kevin M. Curtin ( co-I, UA), Diana Dolliver (co-I, UA), and Kendra McSweeney (co-I, The Ohio State University, co-I)
Student Researchers: Ashleigh Price, Konrad Piepke, Kate Pitts
Funding: National Science Foundation EAGER ISN 1837698 (2018-2021)
Publications

• Magliocca, N.R., McSweeney, K. Sesnie, S.E., Tellman, E., Devine, J.A., Nielsen, E.A., Pearson, Z. Wrathall, D.J., Dávila, A. (2019). Modeling cocaine traffickers and counterdrug interdiction forces as a complex adaptive system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 116 (16): 7784-7792. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812459116
• Tellman, B., Magliocca, N.R., Turner, B.L.,Verburg, P.H. (2020) Illicit-clandestine land transactions - linking pattern to process. Nature Sustainability, 3: 175-181. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0457-1.
• Dávila, A., McSweeney, K., Magliocca, N.R., Rueda, X. (2021). Spatializing illicit global commodity chains. Area. DOI: 10.1111/area.12724. Available at: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author/GQEQIWF3Y3EMB2ACTGTV?target=10.1111/area.12724

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​Illicit Drug Trafficking Networks: Behavioral Responses to InterDiction

Although there is agreement that current interdiction strategies need to change, there is a long history of policy deadlock on how to affect this change. This is, in part, because the processes that link observed narco-trafficking proliferation and innovations in smuggling techniques to specific interdiction strategies are poorly understood. This project will show that a new paradigm is needed in which spatial patterns of narco-trafficking and its proliferation over time are recognized to be—and explicitly modeled as— the result of co-evolution with interdiction operations. This project systematically identifies (1) narco-traffickers’ tendencies for relocating existing or creating new smuggling routes and/or shifting cocaine shipment conveyance methods in response to counterdrug interdiction operations; (2) how those tendencies vary with a range of alternative interdiction strategies; and (3) metrics that move beyond cocaine seizure volumes to better characterize the impacts of counterdrug interdiction of cocaine trafficking network function. This project is developing  a scenario testing environment that tightly integrates a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) front end with a modeling and data analytics backend. The testing environment will enable the quantification of narco-traffickers’ spatial and operational adaptive responses across the spectrum of interdiction scenarios, from which predictive ‘behavioral profiles’ will be derived, catalyzing a shift from reactive to anticipatory medium-to long-term counterdrug interdiction strategies.
Research Team
Senior Personnel: Kevin M Curtin (UA, PI), Nicholas R. Magliocca (UA, co-I), Diana Dolliver (UA, co-I), Matthew Hudnall (UA, co-I)
Student Researchers: Ashleigh Price
Funding: National Science Foundation D-ISN 2039975 (2020-2024)
Publications

• Magliocca, N.R., McSweeney, K. Sesnie, S.E., Tellman, E., Devine, J.A., Nielsen, E.A., Pearson, Z. Wrathall, D.J., Dávila, A. (2019). Modeling cocaine traffickers and counterdrug interdiction forces as a complex adaptive system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 116 (16): 7784-7792. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1812459116
• Tellman, B., Magliocca, N.R., Turner, B.L.,Verburg, P.H. (2020). Understanding the role of illicit transactions in land-change dynamics. Nature Sustainability, 3: 175-181. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0457-1.
• Magliocca, N.R., Torres, A., Margulies, J.D., Carter, N.H., Gore, M., Arroyo-Quiroz, I., Curtin, K.M., Easter*, T.S., Hübschle, A., Massé, F., McSweeney, K., Rege, A., Tellman, E. (2021). Comparative Analysis of Illicit Supply Network Structure and Operations: Cocaine, Wildlife, and Sand. Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 3(1): pp. 50–73. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31389/jied.76.
• Price, A., Curtin, K. M., Magliocca, N. R., Mitchell, P., Turner, D., McSweeney, K., Dolliver, D. S. (2022). A Family of Models in Support of Realistic Drug Interdiction Location Decision Making. Transactions in GIS. DOI: 10.1111/tgis.12921.
  
• ​Magliocca, N.R., Dolliver, D.S., Curtin, K.M., McSweeney, K., Price*, A.N. (2022). Shifting landscape suitability for cocaine trafficking through Central America in response to counterdrug interdiction. Landscape & Urban Planning, 221: 104359. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2022.104359.
  

Presentations

• “Comparing Illicit Supply Networks: Cocaine, Wildlife, and Sand”. Side Event at the 64th Commission on Narcotic Drugs: Illicit Economies and the Environment. Organized by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. Vienna, Austria, April 15th, 2021.
• “Narco-Trafficking Caused Land-Use Change”. GIZ and UNODC Expert Meeting on Drugs and the Environment. Vienna, Austria (virtual). September 21, 2021.

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